This: Why should buyers pay attention to the sales of excavators?
On April 9, China Construction Machinery Industry Association Machinery Branch announced that:In March, 25 main engine manufacturers sold various excavators, up 15.7% year on year.From January to March, the year-on-year growth was 24.5%. The domestic market grew by 23.9% year on year and the export grew by 31.9% year on year.This message once again verified my judgment: "investment pulling", and several students also forwarded this message to me.Why do people care so much about excavators?Because I have always stressed "pay attention to excavators when making purchases" in my lectures, I wrote two articles on "Gong Xunwei Purchase Channel" in 201. 7. @>Talk about excavator @>sales in 2018. [Gong Xunwei: Why should we pay attention to the sales of excavators?] [CCTV news last night, let's look at the economic trend]Why do I like to look at excavators so much? Because excavators are tools used in many investment fields, real estate and infrastructure construction. The progress of infrastructure construction can be seen from the sales volume of excavators.There is no doubt that buyers need to predict the economic trend and then judge the price trend. How to judge? A very simple way is to observe the sales of excavators.I often mentioned this logic to the students in the training in 2016. Some students disagreed and criticized 4 trillion yuan. They thought that the country would no longer be driven by investment because of the side effects, but what is the truth? In the third "CPO Chief Procurement Officer Workshop" class in March 2017, I predicted the macroeconomic situation and price trend for you. In 2018, I also mentioned investment promotion many times.To analyze the macroeconomic situation, we need to understand the troika of export, investment and consumption. According to the current situation in China, I have come to the conclusion that China will use investment to pull.According to statistics, 5200 large-scale excavators were sold in March 2019, up 9.2% year on year; The price of domestic small excavators for medium-sized excavator sales units increased by 24.0% year on year; Sales of small excavators increased by 27.5% over the same period last year. The large excavator represents what you saw in the field, and the medium small excavator represents what you saw at the door. It shows that urban construction and large-scale project construction are carried out simultaneously. From the perspective of product market structure, the growth rate of medium and small excavators is leading, indicating that the greater the growth rate of urban construction, the better the city, and the better the road. When the terrain is flat, the surrounding areas are green and the traffic is smooth, people will have more "sense of gain".In economics, investment can produce multiplier effect, that is, investment is one of the fastest ways of economic growth. At the two press conferences this year, the Prime Minister also stressed that ensuring employment is the top priority and specifically put forward "employment priority". Remember the "six stability" in the government report? That is, stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment and expectations. The core here is stable growth.Without sufficient GDP growth, it is difficult to ensure employment. Therefore, we in China must ensure the growth rate of GDP. How to guarantee?Can it work through export? The Sino-US trade war has a serious impact!Does it depend on consumption? Layoffs continue!What should I do? Investment is motivated, but I can't give up.Of course, the supply-side reform needs to improve the quality and technical content of products, meet the people's desire for a better life, and finally stimulate consumption. But to be honest, the supply-side reform is not so fast. What should we do now? Investment is driven!Excavators are the price of home-made small excavators needed in all infrastructure fields, and can be used in almost all investment fields. Therefore, we can observe the sales of excavators, and we can see that fixed assets investment, which will stimulate the economy and investment and easily lead to price increases. Their correlation can be seen from the historical data. Those who are interested can check by themselves.2019 is a very critical year politically and also a year full of hope. Although there were many pessimistic comments at the beginning of the year, I believe that 2019 is a transition from "uncertain" to "certain" compared with 2018. In 2019, taxes should be stricter and environmental protection should not be relaxedThere are many analyses. It is not convenient to express here. There is an opportunity to communicate in class.
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